The debate between pitching or hitting has been a long standing dispute as to which is more important in winning baseball games. There are numerous narrative examples which are cited by proponents of each side; however they rarely, if ever, convince anyone who’s already settled on one side of the fence.
Baseball historian and mathematician Bill James developed a statistical calculation in an attempt to help settle the argument and dubbed it the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball. His numbers concluded that baseball outcomes are primarily influenced by the batters whose production is 45% of the determination of the final score. The percentage of pitchers was only 36%. He also calculated that defense (which is often cited as being the best offense) factors 16% into a team’s winning percentage. The smallest statistical piece of the pie was base running. James’ concluded that prowess on the base paths only factored in 3% to baseball outcomes.
While attributing a number for base running ability is difficult, the stolen base is the defacto measure. It’s not a difficult leap to believe that a team that steals a lot of bases is also fast and makes smart decisions on the base paths.
James’ calculations were based on MLB statistics, which although primarily has by the same rules as college baseball, is played differently. Judging from the success of some of the top teams in DII, NAIA and DIII baseball, speed is a much greater factor in determining success.
Along with the latest rankings is a look at some of the top teams in stealing bases. While each of these clubs have plenty of other weapons which help them win games, aggressiveness on the base paths is unquestionably a significant component of their success.
NCAA DII
| Rk | School | State | Record | Lst Week | Prev Rk |
| 1 | Tampa Spartans | FL | 39-5 | 2-1 | 1 |
| 2 | Central Missouri Mules | MO | 43-6 | 3-1 | 2 |
| 3 | North Greenville Crusaders | SC | 40-10 | 4-0 | 3 |
| 4 | Point Loma Sea Lions | CA | 36-9-1 | 3-1 | 4 |
| 5 | UNC Pembroke Braves | NC | 38-12 | 4-0 | 5 |
| 6 | St. Leo Lions | FL | 37-6 | 3-0 | 8 |
| 7 | Young Harris Mountain Lions | GA | 38-11 | 2-2 | 6 |
| 8 | Millersville Marauders | PA | 37-9 | 4-0 | 12 |
| 9 | Missouri Southern St. Lions | MO | 37-13 | 1-2 | 9 |
| 10 | Colorado Mesa Mavericks | CO | 32-14 | 3-1 | 13 |
| 11 | Augustana Vikings | SD | 35-8 | 2-2 | 7 |
| 12 | Angelo State Rams | TX | 34-16 | 2-2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mount Olive Trojans | NC | 34-14 | 2-2 | 11 |
| 14 | Lander Bearcats | SC | 37-12 | 2-1 | 16 |
| 15 | Lubbock Christian Chaparrals | TX | 36-14 | 4-0 | 18 |
| 16 | Catawba Indians | NC | 37-12 | 3-0 | 19 |
| 17 | Seton Hill Griffins | PA | 33-12 | 5-0 | 20 |
| 18 | East Stroudsburg Warriors | PA | 35-9 | 1-3 | 14 |
| 19 | Lee Flames | TN | 36-14 | 2-2 | 17 |
| 20 | West Chester Golden Rams | PA | 35-7 | 3-1 | NR |
| 21 | West Texas A&M Buffs | TX | 35-15 | 2-2 | 22 |
| 22 | Ashland Eagles | OH | 36-9 | 2-3 | 15 |
| 23 | Saginaw Valley State Cardinals | MI | 32-13 | 4-1 | 25 |
| 24 | Georgia Southwestern Hurricanes | GA | 33-16 | 1-2 | 21 |
| 25 | Central Oklahoma Bronchos | OK | 36-12 | 2-1 | NR |
| DROP | Westmont Warriors | CA | 34-14 | 23 | |
| DROP | Barton Bulldogs | NC | 24 |
Although stolen bases didn’t factor into Central Missouri’s series win over Missouri Southern last weekend when the two top ten teams met to close the regular season, the steal has been a substantial part of the Mules’ success this year. The Mules have 159 stolen bases in 49 games, which is fifth best in DII. They are averaging just under 3 ¼ stolen bases per game, and in games when they’ve surpassed that mark, their overall record is 22-1. The only loss was when they stole four bases but were edged 10-9 by Washburn in mid April.
Five times this season Central Missouri stole at least seven bases in a game, including a season high nine against Pittsburg State. In that matchup, a 13-4 victory over the Gorillas, senior outfielder Brennen van Breusegen stole four bases all by himself. Despite his personal crime spree on the base paths that day, van Breusegen is only fifth on the team in steals this spring. The leader is Max Holy who has successfully stolen 28 games in 29 attempts. Of the nine everyday players in their lineup, seven have double-digit totals for stolen bases. Of the other two, one is eight for eight in attempts, and the other is only a semi-regular with 29 starts.
An aggressive outlook on the base paths is nothing new in Warrensburg. The Mules regularly eclipse the century mark in team steals. Their current 159 total matches last year’s final, and the last time they didn’t surpass at least 90 in a full season was a decade ago in 2015 when they finished with 85.
What’s even more remarkable about UCM’s stealing supremacy is that their total would be high if they didn’t hit for so many extra base hits. The Mules have a combined total of 138 home runs and triples which needless to say, makes it difficult to steal a base if you’ve already scored or are already on third base.
The use of the stolen base to translate to success is not limited to Central Missouri. Seven other teams in the DII Perfect Game DII Top 25 are currently in the top twenty overall in stolen bases. St. Leo and Millersville, with 157 and 147 stolen bases respectively are in the top ten, with Angelo State, Catawba, Lander, Seton Hill and UNC Pembroke also all have at least 111 stolen bases so far.
NAIA
| Rk | School | State | Record | Lst Week | Prev Rk |
| 1 | Southeastern Fire | FL | 44-6 | 3-1 | 1 |
| 2 | Georgia Gwinnett Grizzlies | GA | 42-6 | 3-0 | 2 |
| 3 | Cumberlands Patriots | KY | 44-6 | 4-1 | 3 |
| 4 | Webber International Warriors | FL | 40-10 | 1-1 | 4 |
| 5 | Missouri Baptist Spartans | MO | 36-9-1 | 3-0-1 | 5 |
| 6 | Central Methodist Eagles | MO | 42-7 | 4-0 | 6 |
| 7 | LSU Shreveport Pilots | LA | 39-7 | 4-0 | 7 |
| 8 | Kansas Wesleyan Coyotes | KS | 41-8 | 3-0 | 8 |
| 9 | Lewis-Clark State Warriors | ID | 35-9 | 4-0 | 9 |
| 10 | Tennessee Wesleyan Bulldogs | TN | 33-15 | 3-0 | 13 |
| 11 | William Carey Crusaders | MS | 30-14 | 3-0 | 15 |
| 12 | William Jessup Warriors | CA | 36-9 | 0-0 | 12 |
| 13 | Hope International Royals | CA | 35-12 | 0-1 | 10 |
| 14 | Mid-America Christian Evangels | OK | 36-10 | 4-0 | 17 |
| 15 | Faulkner Eagles | AL | 33-14 | 1-2 | 11 |
| 16 | Bellevue Bruins | NE | 36-12 | 2-1 | 14 |
| 17 | Reinhardt Eagles | GA | 35-14 | 4-0 | 19 |
| 18 | Loyola Wolf Pack | LA | 35-15 | 0-3 | 16 |
| 19 | Taylor Trojans | IN | 37-13 | 4-0 | 22 |
| 20 | Oklahoma City Stars | OK | 32-15 | 3-1 | 20 |
| 21 | Doane Tigers | NE | 35-11 | 2-2 | 18 |
| 22 | Concordia Bulldogs | NE | 37-12 | 4-0 | 21 |
| 23 | Ottawa (OUAZ) Spirit | AZ | 32-15 | 1-0 | 25 |
| 24 | Benedictine Mesa Redhawks | AZ | 31-13 | 0-1 | 23 |
| 25 | Tabor Bluejays | KS | 34-12 | 2-1 | 24 |
While base stealing isn’t quite the rage among the top teams in the NAIA, there are a number of teams of which it is a primary weapon in their offensive arsenal. Like Central Missouri in DII, an aggressive approach on the basepaths has long been a tactic embraced by Georgia Gwinnett to make them one of their division’s top teams. Over the three prior seasons GGC averaged 225 stolen bases per season. That average will increase this year as the Grizzlies are easily outpacing NAIA competition with an astonishing 269 stolen bases in only 48 games. That’s a preposterous rate of over 5.6 stolen bases per contest. GGC has seven players who have stolen no fewer than twenty bases as they’ve compiled yet another lopsided winning season with a 42-6 record so far and have spent the entire spring as the second ranked team.
The Grizzlies top thief is their leading hitter Blaze O’Saben. In addition to topping the team with a .429 batting average and 10 triples, he also has stolen 46 bases while only being caught once. Interestingly the senior has only a total of 33 swipes his first two seasons at GGC in 109 games. Other primary contributors to their total include Ajay Sczepkowski who has stolen no fewer than 35 bases the past two seasons and Joe Quelch who has upped his total from 19 last season to a current mark of 41.
The Grizzlies are also able to up the stolen base total thanks to the NAIA’s unique courtesy runner rule. Teams have the option to use a runner for the pitcher, designated hitter or catcher at any time. Peyton Peoples has appeared in 42 games this season, almost exclusively in that role. In doing so he has stolen 34 bases in 40 attempts as well as scored 62 times. Although perhaps he should bat more – he has three hits in five at bats this spring.
Other teams currently in the Perfect Game NAIA Top 25 who are among the top twenty-five in stolen bases include Loyola (173 SBs), LSU-Shreveport (121) and top ranked Southeastern (114).
NCAA DIII
| Rk | School | State | Record | Lst Week | Prev Rk |
| 1 | Endicott Gulls | MA | 33-2 | 5-0 | 1 |
| 2 | East Texas Baptist Tigers | TX | 34-6 | 3-0 | 3 |
| 3 | Johns Hopkins Blue Jays | MD | 29-9 | 4-1 | 4 |
| 4 | Salisbury Seagulls | MD | 28-7 | 2-1 | 2 |
| 5 | Denison Big Red | OH | 31-5 | 3-1 | 5 |
| 6 | Baldwin Wallace Yellow Jackets | OH | 31-6 | 3-1 | 6 |
| 7 | UW-Whitewater Warhawks | WI | 30-6 | 3-1 | 8 |
| 8 | Salve Regina Seahawks | RI | 29-5 | 5-0 | 9 |
| 9 | Rowan Profs | NJ | 24-11 | 4-1 | 10 |
| 10 | Trinity Tigers | TX | 30-10 | 3-1 | 13 |
| 11 | Case Western Reserve Spartans | OH | 30-9 | 3-1 | 14 |
| 12 | Cortland State Red Dragons | NY | 24-10-1 | 3-1 | 15 |
| 13 | Christopher Newport Captains | VA | 23-8 | 2-1 | 11 |
| 14 | La Verne Leopards | CA | 25-9-1 | 4-0 | 16 |
| 15 | Lynchburg Hornets | VA | 25-14 | 3-1 | 18 |
| 16 | Misericordia Cougars | PA | 29-9 | 3-1 | 20 |
| 17 | Eastern Connecticut Warriors | CT | 23-11 | 1-3 | 7 |
| 18 | Penn State Harrisburg Lions | PA | 31-7 | 5-0 | NR |
| 19 | UW LaCrosse Eagles | WI | 24-11 | 3-2 | 12 |
| 20 | Aurora Spartans | IL | 27-9 | 4-1 | 21 |
| 21 | Pomona-Pitzer Sagehens | CA | 26-11 | 1-2 | 17 |
| 22 | Shenandoah Hornets | VA | 25-13 | 3-1 | 24 |
| 23 | Transylvania Pioneers | KY | 30-6 | 4-0 | NR |
| 24 | Randolph-Macon Yellow Jackets | VA | 25-11 | 2-2 | 23 |
| 25 | Montclair State Red Hawks | NJ | 26-13 | 0-4 | 19 |
| DROP | Benedictine Eagles | IL | 25-9 | 1-3 | 22 |
| DROP | Cal Lutheran Kingsmen | CA | 25 |
As prevalent as the stolen is used effectively to win games at the DII and NAIA level, the results don’t translate over to DIII. The only teams in the Perfect Game DIII Top 25 which are in the top thirty-five in stolen bases are East Texas Baptist and Denison. The Tigers’ total of 108 in 40 games positions them just inside the top twenty. The Big Red’s 93 stolen bases in 36 games has them tied for 35th. It’s perhaps interesting to note both of these two teams are in the top five of the DIII rankings.
For ETBU, five of the six everyday players who have at least 100 at bats have double-digit stolen bases. The only one who doesn’t could make it there by season’s end as he’s seven for eight in attempts. The Tigers are led by Jacob Evangelista who has 28 this season and stole 32 in 2023. Denison’s top threat is junior outfielder Eric Colaco who has 29 in 32 attempts.
Unlike Central Missouri and Georgia Gwinnett, ETBU and Denison are fairly new to utilizing stolen bases to win games. The addition of an aggressive attack seems to be paying off for each of them. Over the past three years each of them have stolen an increasing number of bases. During that time frame each of them have also won an increasing number of games. Denison went from 47 stolen bases with a 27-13 record in 2021 to a 36-10 record with a total of 124 swipes last year. ETBU stole 73 bases in 2021 and won 29 games. Their win total improved to 42 last year as they reached the century mark with 101 total steals.